Foster City 2011 Condo/Townhouse Statistics

How about the other side of the market? Condos/Townhouses? Sort of a similar scenario to what we saw with houses on Tuesday.

In 2008 108 units sold in Foster City. Interestingly, and also inexplicably, 144 units sold in 2009 and in 2010 we had 135 sales in this category.

In 2011 we had 152 units sell, obviously the bes since the bust.

How about the average values in FC, in 2008 the average sale price $637,436. That number fell in 2009 to an average of $574,746. That amounts to about 9.8% reduction in values over that year. In 2010 the average sale price was $580,148. Like houses, a slight improvement for that year. The problem in 2011, again like houses was the fact that the average dollar amount was down to $509,175. That amounts to about a 20% drop in FC values since the top. This is also somewhat confusing since the high end has pretty much dissolved at Promontory Point and we don’t have $1 million plus comps to add into these figures. The truth is hat some projects did well and others tanked and brought the overall values down for this report. Island J is a great example.

No too surprisingly, the average days on market rose again too.  In 2008 we were at 56 DOM. In 2009 we jumped up to 70 DOM…but in 2010 that number went back down to 50 DOM. In 2011 we went up to 72 DOM.

2012 is going to be very, very interesting! With the low levels of inventory right now it’s very hard to gauge how it’ll be since it’s pretty active right now. Lets root for a good year.

Foster City 2011 Statistics

It really seemed to me for most of last year that the market was slower in Foster City than it was in some of the neighboring communities. Oddly enough, there was more activity in 2011 but prices wne down. I felt like 2010 was a good year but last year seemed slower to me. Anyway…in the years post-downturn we had the following:

In 2007 there were 100 single family transactions in Foster City, 95 in 2008 and 100 again in 2009. In 2010 we had 112. 2011 brought us 125 sales…we’re heading in the right direction at least!

The average days on market for homes changed too. This usually is an important bellweather that demonstrates how the market is doing. In 2007 the average DOM was 32, it was 49 in 2008 and it was a whopping 65 in 2009. In 2010 it dropped to 42. 2011 averaged 55 days on the market. Honestly, all these numbers are really good compared to lots of areas in Northern California. 55 is great, it’s just slightly slower than the year before.

Now how about the actual numbers. If we’re comparing average sale prices we look sort of bad compared to the good old days. In 2007 the average sale price in Foster City was $1,157,960. In 2008 that price was $1,112, 816. In 2009 it had fallen to $1,020,717 and in 2010 that number rose to $1,030,981. Here’s the bad news…in 2011 we finished at $981,169. That’s actually a pretty significant decline and brings the total reduction in value since 2007 when the bad news started to 15%. Having said that, 15% isn’t bad at all compared to most places.

Highs and Lows 2011-Condo/Townhouses

MOST EXPENSIVE CONDO/TOWNHOUSE:

712 Zumwalt This waterfront townhouse at Harborside, a 4 bedroom unit sold for $818,000 and went with multiple offers.

HIGHEST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:

1027 Rudder at Bayfront Court. This 2 bedroom waterfront sold for $688,000, or $502.00 a square foot. Waterfronts are nice…

LOWEST PRICED CONDO/TOWNHOUSE:

3103 Admiralty Lane. That’s the only pic of this 1 bedroom unit that sold for $183,999. Last years lowest was also a 1 bedroom but it went for $294,000. This one was a foreclosure.

LOWEST COST PER SQUARE FOOT:

665 Portofino at The Islands. It sure takes something special to unseat Promontory Point for this award…but this one does it! It comes it at an incredible $200.00 per square foot. Of course you have to pay the $717.00 per month HOA dues.

LONGEST ON THE MARKET:

844 Balboa. Once again at the Islands. This unit took 336 days to sell.

GREATEST OVERBID:

842 Magellan at Winston Square. This 3 bedroom unit sold for $36,240 over asking and finished at $671,240.

GREATEST AMOUNT UNDER ORIGINAL LIST PRICE:

878 Ursa in Isle Cove. This unit, a very nice one began at $690,000 and ended up a short sale and closed at $525,000. $165,000 under the orginal price.

Highs and Lows 2011-Houses

Every year…it’s fun!

MOST EXPENSIVE HOUSE:

609 Anacapa Very nice 4 bedroom, 3 bath house in Alden Park…not on the water. It sold for $1,448,000. up from 2010′s high of $1,400,000.

HIGHEST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:

608 Bridgeport This truly gorgeous Whalers waterfront went for $1,110,000 in spite of it’s 1790 sq ft…or $620.00 a sq ft.

LOWEST PRICED HOUSE:

811 Constitution This Eichler in need of some updates sold for $700,000.

LOWEST PRICE PRE SQUARE FOOT:

150 Flying Cloud Isle This REO was on leased land, which accounts for it’s low sale price of $763,000 for a waterfront. It was the lowest at $345.00 a square foot.

LONGEST ON THE MARKET:

Once again…150 Flying Cloud. That leased land thing was a problem…it lasted 376 days.

GREATEST OVERBID:

121 Spinnaker This was really a gorgeous house and I really thought it was priced too low to begin with at $998,000. It sold for $1.035,000 or $37,000 over asking. It was one of very few overbids in 2011.

GREATEST AMOUNT UNDER ORIGINAL LIST PRICE:

20 Lyme Lane This actually isn’t a bad house, the problem was it’s right next to the 101 sound wall. That caused it to take 275 days to get an offer and it sold for $860,000…$288,000 under it’s original price of $1,148,000.

New Beginnings

Every year at this time sort of feels new and fresh. Like we get to start over again in many real ways. It’s like the slate gets wiped clean and everything that happened last year is over and done with…and here we are embarking once again on the journey. What will 2012 hold for all of us? Who knows…but we’re in it now so let’s make the best of it. As for real estate in Foster City? I think 2012 is going to be a really good year. I think it’s going to be a better year than any of the others since 2008. I guess my reason is simple too…my phone has been ringing a ton in the last month or so. Lots and lots of people are either looking right now or about to begin searching for homes to buy. At the same time, there’s 11 single family homes on the market in FC today and 15 condo/townhouses. That’s an incredibly small amount of inventory. When new listings come on the market in 2012 there’s going to be multiple offers since these buyers who’ve been looking havn’t exactly been thrilled with the existing inventory so…when something good comes up there’s going to be alot of interest. I think this trend is going to last for awhile too. 2011 was pretty sluggish if you ask me and there’s been some demand pent up. I think it’s going to be fun to see where this all goes. My only question is how long will it be before the mainstream media starts reporting this and then there will be even more buyers. I’m excited for 2012.

Supply & Demand

It’s that time of the year again…low inventory time. Every year at this time folks tend to stop thinking about selling their homes in favor of getting ready for the Holidays and simply wait for the New Year to start the process. 2011 is no different than any other year it would seem. Today, there are 16 active single family homes listed for sale in Foster City. One of them is actually a vacant lot too. The house burned down in a fire a few years ago. Now it’s bank owned to boot.

It’s sort of a tough time if you’re looking to buy because there just isn’t much to look at…and what’s there isn’t exactly super exciting either. Consequently, the less than exciting places are getting quite a bit of interest. If you can do it, wait until after the first of the year. You’ll have more selection. Seems like every time I call about a house on the market in FC right now too I’m hearing that multiple disclosure packets have gone out and there’s tons of interest. I guess if you want to compete now’s the time. No supply, lots of demand.

The Long Drought

We hit a milestone this week in Foster City. I really kind of thought that we had pretty much stopped seeing homes sell in this town in the higher price ranges. After all, it’s been before the market tanked in late 2008 that we’ve seen a house in Foster City sell for over $1,400,000. Actually we came pretty close last year when 618 Portsmouth sold for exactly $1,400,000 and this year we had 1037 Monterey selling for $1,386,000, but it really has been slim pickins in this lofty price range around here. Well, that changed this week when the house at 609 Anacapa came on at $1,448,000…and sold right away.

This house is really stunning and has a ton of details. If any house could get top dollar it was this one. Really magificent attention to detail. I’m not entirely sure if this marks any kind of trend but it sure isn’t a bad sign either. I’d like to think that it suggests some confidence in Foster City and where it’s heading. Congratulations to the sellers at 609 Anacapa and to Lizette D’Almeida who listed this property.

Renting in 2011

A month or so ago, some clients of mine sold their house and entered the rental market.  Their experience shocked me to a very great degree…it’s a feeding frenzy right now in the rental market. They reported to me stories about multiple offers and surprisingly high rents for homes that were, in their opinion, average at best. They ended up renting on the coast in Half Moon Bay because while hot, it wasn’t as hot as it is on this side of the hill.

I’m sure alot of you are very familiar with this story. The rental market right now is the purchase market in 2005…crazy! I spent some time looking at craigslist…it’s amazing what places are going for. A typical townhouse starts at $3200.00 a month in Foster City. A nice house, sometimes on the water, begin at $4100.00 a month and there’s one out there for $5500.00 a month. Anything that’s fixed up is over $4000.00 a month.  Pretty much the same story all over these local communities. I’ll say it again…that’s a pretty remarkable and amazing thing.

What’s really interesting to me a the fact that thats about the same monthly nut that you would have if you buy a place. A $900,000 house with 20% down at a current interest rate of 4.25% gives you a monthly mortgage payment of $3541.96. Add on the property taxes and the insurance and you’re at $4483.62 a month. I don’t know…call me zany but I’d rather write that check to a bank for my mortgage than to a landlord every month. If people are lining up and competing to pay rents this high what does that say about the stability of this area. I think there’s some confidence in it.

I honestly think that reality is going to become pretty apparent in the not too distant future. I’m willing to bet that 2012 is going to be a good year in real estate. Even with the politicians intentionally casting doom and gloom in their endless quest for power.

The High End

I’m really not sure exactly why this is, but it’s sure seemed to me this year that the high end of the market in Foster City has been a little slow. Seems slower than our sister Mid Peninsula communities as well. While there’s been sales there, the difference is that there seems to be more demand in our neighboring towns for the high end house. In the last 3 months, there’s been 19 single family homes sold and closed in Foster City…only 1 of them went for the asking price. Nevermind overbids, there weren’t any of those.  There were 8 houses close escrow during that period as well under a million that experienced overbids in FC.

I guess the thought came to me because I’ve seen overbids on many houses in other towns around here. In San Carlos, there were 60 closings in the last 3 months, 32 of them at or over asking and 12 of them taking place in th range over a million. In Belmont 30 homes closed escrow, 18 at or over asking and 4 of them over a mil. Finally, in San Mateo there were 96 closings, 39 at or over asking and 12 of them were over the million dollar ranges.

If it wasn’t for the house at 717 Baffin closing at the asking price of $1,228,000 we would have had a blank in this category.  I’m not sure why this is? There’s currently 7 pending sales on houses priced over a million dollars, it’s going to be interesting to see where they end up. It’s not like homes in this range aren’t selling, it’s just that the competition for these homes is less in FC than it is around us.

Predicting the Future

Predicting the future….yeah, right! This really is a strange time in real estate. To me, at least. It’s really difficult to come to any kind of understanding about what’s going on…and thus what 2011 will actually bring. On the one hand I had this experience…I’m working with a young couple who want to buy a house in Pacifica or South San Francisco. In the last month we’ve seen probably 10 houses that could actually suit their needs. Some of these houses are very, very nice. Upgrades everywhere. Homes in perfect showing condition. Compared to Foster City and the Mid Peninsula, priced well.  None of them have sold. My client refers alotto information he’s finding online that tells him the market is going to continue a precipitous downward slide. He thinks prices could fall another 30%. I think that’s absurd…but it’s hard to argue with nothing selling in his price range in Pacifica. The longer a house stays on the market the more pressure will be on it to reduce their price to sell it.

On the other hand we have the 2010 numbers for Foster City…and by the way, those numbers are pretty typical for our neighboring communities as well. Slight increases in all pertinent numbers. Values increasing…albeit by a small amount. I have to say honestly, that fact surprised me somewhat. The real estate market has taken an enormous amount of abuse within the media and elsewhere and still we have appreciation last year! All the pundits predicting 50% devaluation have certainly been proven wrong around here. Who knows what the future holds, but it sure seems very hard to believe that after we had the stability of 2010 we’ll see values plummet to the degree that was predicted in 2008.

Yet another thing that seems very clear to me is just true it is that all real estate is local. It really won’t surprise me if Pacifica or San Jose or many East Bay cities continue to decline dramatically. It really will surprise me if it does around here. I have a client interested in a house in Belmont listed just below $1,300,000. Offers are going to be heard on Thursday and there are 4 disclosure packets out right now. That dynamic isn’t happening in Pacifica or Almaden Valley or San Bruno. (I wish it wasn’t here!! I don’t want that competition!)

How do you predict, then, the trajectory of the 2011 Foster City real estate market? I think you have to believe that it’s going to be healthy and at the very least stable. I think values will hold their own and in some cases decent appreciation will occur. If you’ve invested here, or you’re thinking about investing here, there isn’t a better place anywhere to do that!