Exponential

Double_Exponential_Function

A couple of posts ago I marveled at the listed price of the house on Beach Park that’s up for $1,748,000 and a couple of posts prior to that I marveled at the price for the house at 908 Constitution that was listed $100,000 over the sales price of a similar comp that was a few months old. Constitution sold of course and I can’t wait to find out what for. The fact of the matter is that so far in 2015 the prices seem exponentially higher than they were in 2014.

Foster City is a great place to look at comps since it has so many similar floorplans. Comparing like kind homes is simpler than doing the same thing in San Mateo.   For example, the 3 bedroom house at 249 Shearwater sold after being listed for $1,748,000. The all time high for this floorplan was actually this house and it sold last year for $1,525,000.

The house currently listed at 1130 Schooner is listed for $1,629,888. I sold this floorplan last year around the corner for $1,350,000. A similar floorplan also sold on Mira for $1,650,000 though. Schooner is looking at offers next Wednesday…that’ll be interesting.

There’s also the house at 1101 Catamaran that’s listed for $1,608,000. Again, I sold the last house with this floorplan in Foster City last year, it went for $1,280,000 with 7 offers. Slightly different floorplans with this square footage sold last year for $1,400,000 and $1,358,000.

I have a condo at Lido Isle coming up in a few weeks, it has the best waterfront exposure I’ve seen on either a house or a condo. Wide water on 2 sides. I’m listing it well over the all time high for this floorplan. Why not?

 

Foster City 2014 Condo/Townhouse Statistics

OrderStatistics

As I’ve mentioned before on this blog, condo/townhouses are a lot more difficult to draw conclusions about because there are problem projects and great projects and some are way up and others not so much. Thus that should be considered when thinking about the overall statistics about FC. Let’s get started…how about the total number of units sold. Here’s the history:

2006…240

2007…165

2008…112

2009…140

2010…143

2011…144

2012…156

2013…169

In 2014 the number was 176. Pretty interesting since there has indeed been low inventory. It’s nowhere near the high of 2006 but I suspect that unlike many years, everything that came up sold. Now how about the average prices:

2006…$661,993

2007…$694,026

2008…$635,839

2009…$577,267

2010…$577,150

2011…$512,192

2012…$551,000

2013…$657,000

In 2014 we hit an all time high….$744,522! Most projects in Foster City did indeed have all time highs as well. What’s 2015 going to bring? More all time highs if you ask me. We’ll see…

Foster City 2014 Statistics

stats

So every year I write this post and the story has been pretty much the same…less sales as the result of bad inventory. Last year I marveled at the fact that only 106 single family houses sold in 2013 and how that was the lowest number since the lean year of mortgage meltdown in 2008…when there was only 99 closed sales. Well, in 2014 there were 99 closed sales. Again, this wasn’t because of low demand. It wasn’t because there was an international crisis that stopped the market. It was simply because there was no inventory.  I also marveled at the fact that the average days on the market in 2013 was only 20 days. That was miniscule compared to 37 in 2006 (the market’s previous high point) and then 65 in 2009. Guess what? In 2014 the DOM was 15!!!

Now for the really scary numbers. Here’s a breakdown of the average sales prices since 2006:

2006…$1,078,000

2007…$1,113,000

2008…$1,118,000

2009…$1,010,000

2010…$1,004,000

2011…$976,000

2012…$1,021,000

2013…$1,236,000.

Hold onto your hats…the average sales price for 2014 was $1,359,000! I mentioned this before, but there was only ONE home that sold under $1,000,000 in 2014. In 2013 there were 22 sold under $1,000,000. Today there’s a new listing on Beach Park that came up for $1,748,000. The most money EVER spent for a house on that stretch of Beach Park? $1,400,000. The most in ANY stretch of Beach Park…$1,540,000. We’re on a wild ride, huh?

Highs & Lows 2014-Condo/Townhouses

OK, so how about these guys:

 

MOST EXPENSIVE CONDO/TOWNHOUSE:

promo

740 Promontory Point #3404 This large 2697 sq ft unit sold for $1,290,000. The high in 2013 at Promontory Point was $1,012.500. Same size place.

HIGHEST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:

ERICK

834 Erickson at Winston Square, in only 1380 sq ft, sold for $1,050,000…a whopping $760.00 per square foot.

LOWEST PRICED CONDO:

ADMIR1

2110 Admiralty Lane This little 1 bedroom unit closed for $337,500. The 2013 low…$280,000.

LOWEST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:

ADMI1

1214 Admiralty Lane The Admiralty is always going to come in last it seems. This 3 bedroom unit sold for $510,000…or $338.00 per square feet.

LONGEST ON THE MARKET:

till

1082 Tiller This unit was on the market for 105 days, but was originally listed as a short sale and was rescued by the market and sold as a regular sale for $848,000.

GREATEST OVERBID:

PORTO

664 Portofino So much for Island J’s problems. This unit was listed for $825,000 and sold for $995,240. An overbid of $170,240!

GREATEST AMOUNT UNDER THE ORIGINAL LIST PRICE:

TOWNG

219 Town Green Lane It’s actually very remarkable that so few places sold under asking…I only found about 5 out of 176. The place closed $45,000 under asking. Very unusual last year.

Highs & Lows 2014-Houses

 

 

Happy New Year! Now let’s see what happened in 2014.

 

MOST EXPENSIVE HOUSE;

ports

620 Portsmouth This 5 bedroom, wide water gem at Whalers in 2710 sq ft sold for $1,930,000. The 2013 high was an aberration, a 4300 sq ft waterfront that went for $2,225,000. The 2012 high was $1,520,000.

 

HIGHEST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT;

 

ARUBA

934 Aruba This 1810 sq ft waterfront at Plum Isle went for an amazing $1,750,000…or $966.00 per square foot. Last years high was $807.00 and I thought that was massive.

 

LOWEST PRICED HOUSE:

 

MAIN

200 Mainsail This fixer upper Eichler sold in May for $981,000. Incredibly, it was the ONLY single family house in Foster City to sell under $1,000,000 in 2014. Interestingly, the buyers fixed it and flipped it in July for $1,455,000.

 

LOWEST COST PER SQUARE FOOT:

 

PUFFIN1

217 Puffin This fixer sold for $1,140,000…after awhile on the market too. It’s all of 2540 sq ft making it sell for $448.00 per square foot.

 

LONGEST ON THE MARKET:

TEAL

633 Teal  This place was on the market, technically, for 157 days. That’s a bit unfair since it was on at the end of 2013 and didn’t sell. The sellers changed agents and 25 of those days were lost during the agent change. Nevertheless, it was on for awhile. The second longest house took only 35 days to sell.

GREATEST OVERBID:

ARUBA

Guess what? It’s that Aruba house again! This place was listed for $1,288,000 and the sale price was $1,750,000. $462,000 over asking. Amazing.

GREATEST AMOUNT UNDER ORIGINAL LIST PRICE:

BARK

112 Barkentine This place sold in 24 days, but it went $110,000 under asking. Go figure.

 

 

 

Numbers

I saw some numbers this morning that shocked me…and that’s actually kind of an amazing thing all by itself. In 2013 (which was a great year by the way) the slowest month for sales was, not surprisingly, December. In December of 2013 there were 1188 transactions. Compared that to 1878 transactions in September of 2013…the highest month.

In 2014 the biggest sales month was May and it came in at 1718 transactions. Less, but not enormously. The number for December 2014 was what was most surprising. There were only 629 sales. Less by almost half of the already low number of 2013! This number didn’t come as the result of a slower market and low demand…it came because of the incredible lack of inventory. What’s just as scary is the fact there was only 945 sales in November 2014….and 1538 in November of 2013.

Right now today there’s 4 whole properties on the market in Foster City. Two houses and two condos. That’s it! If this doesn’t turn around the January 2015 number is going to resemble Decembers number. It’s really scary out there.

Living Proof

So, right after I write that post about the storm coming…here comes the proof. Last night a 1700 sq ft 4 bedroom house at 908 Constitution hits the market priced at $1,358,000. The house looks nice, but the last 2 comparables of this floor plan in Foster City closed last April and May (that’s 2014 mind you) at 899 Constitution and 936 Constitution…for $1,230,000 and $1,258,000. Both of these places went over their asking prices by at least $130,000. Now we have this place listed a full $100,000 over the last comp for Foster City.

Here’s the problem…no inventory. As much as it pains me to say it, this place will almost certainly get multiple offers. How could it not? What does this all say about values around here in 2015? At least to start it certainly doesn’t mean that prices will decline. Been to any open houses lately? There’s certainly no shortage of buyers. It’s scary.

There’s a Storm Coming

The last year or so have been really insane. The first part of 2014 was particularly crazy too…if you ask me that is. It slowed down just a tad since the early summer but I’m firmly of the opinion that a storm is coming and the first quarter of 2015 is going to be just as nuts as 2014 at it’s worst. How’s that possible you ask? It’s simple supply and demand. Right now in Foster City, San Mateo, Redwood Shores, San Carlos and Belmont there’s a grand total of 27 active single family house in all price ranges. That’s from $2,349,000 to $685,000. It’s sort of hard for me to imagine that the lowest priced house in our area is now $685,000…but there you have it.

Do you suppose there’s a few more than 27 parties interested in buying a house in these towns? Have you been to an open house lately? Let’s break it down though…it makes it even more vivid. Here’s the town breakout:

 

Foster City….2

San Mateo….17

Belmont……3

Redwood Shores….0

San Carlos….5

Interestingly, there’s a new Foster City listing here at 249 Shearwater listed for $1,748,000. It’s a flip. These sellers bought it in September for $1,525,000. Nice, huh? I can clearly remember when 100 active listings in San Mateo was normal. Even 2 years ago 20 active listings in San Carlos was normal…but low compared to other markets. Now we have 5? It seems like I’ve done nothing but complain about the lack of inventory here for the last several years. We’re in an extreme drought around here. Worse than California is having with water. Oddly, this morning I read that even with all the heavy rains in the last few days we’re still a long way from ending the drought. It’s going to have to rain another 49 inches this season to catch up to where we should be. That’s after the rain we just got!

That’s sort of what this inventory thing is like around here. We need an inundation of new houses to come back to normal….and that’s simply NOT going to happen. Prices are going to continue to climb.

Light Years Apart

See that house up there? It just closed on Martinique in Pitcairn. It’s a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath house. The floorplan has a huge master suite. It was listed for $1,298,000 and closed at $1,383,000. In my opinion it needed work. It also had this weird feature, the seller cut a hole in the wall between the living room and the garage and enclosed the laundry area (formerly in the garage) allowing access from the living room. I guess it felt more convenient that way?

I guess it struck me as remarkable because I sold the identical floorplan right across the street in 2010 for $960,000. It was in a lot better shape and it took 26 days to sell. In fact it was originally listed for $988,000 and sold under asking. The fact that the house above did what it did is certainly amazing. It had foundation issues too. This is where we are now.

Currently in Foster City there’s a whopping 2 active houses for sale. One is a probate that’s already received offers and is just waiting for a court date to make the sale official. In other words…it’s sold. The other is an Eichler that’s being used as an elder care facility. It needs some work. It’s been off and on the market for 200 days now. It’s priced at $1,288,000. Since it’s the ONLY house for sale maybe they’ll get it now?

It’s really amazing what’s happened here. A house that sells for $1,200,000 here seems cheap now. I’m actually not sure you can buy a house that cheap here. Seriously.

 

The Latest Thing

So I found this very cool new technology that I think will totally change the way we look at virtual tours online and I’m proud to share it here. We’ve all gotten used to virtual tours with lots of still shots and a few 360 degree images that allow you to sort of spin around within a given area, either inside or outside the house. Now, a local startup called Matterport has created the technology to shoot fully 3D images inside a house that’s attached to the home’s overall floor plan. It’s sort of the virtual tour version of Google street view. You simply click on the arrows and the technology will allow you to “walk” through a house…just as if you were there.

It’s really wonderful stuff! Click this link below and you’ll see what I mean. Click on the little icons in the corner once you’re there to get the floor plan.

https://my.matterport.com/webgl_player/#model=PtML5Lr3Ens