Recovery

There’s a well known real estate blogger in the mid west who wrote a post a week or so ago in which she disputed the use of the term “recovery” with regard to the real estate market. She really wasn’t being negative, it just doesn’t seem to fit with the reality of her market place. At one point she states

“There won’t be any recovery because recovery implies that it will get back to what it was and that can not happen.”

I think that’s a very interesting point. Is it true? Certainly, we’re not heading back into a market where large numbers of buyers are using zero down, sub prime loans to purchase homes. We aren’t going back to that era…I hope! I think in many parts of this country the devastation that was wrought in the last 5 years was incredibly potent. I’m sure it’s hard to see how it can be possible to become whole again. Clearly, there’s still plenty of folks under water and we have not reached a stage where everybody is in the black again around this area too.

The thing is though, we’re actually seeing homes sell in 2012 for all time high prices. I really think the idea of recovery is one that’s very real if you live in our area. When there’s multiple offers on just about everything it’s sort of hard not to think that recovery is more than just a novel idea. I was around before the big tech boom, during the dot-com early years and all through the meltdown years. This market feels as hot to me as any I’ve seen in 22 years. Maybe it’s not 2004…but it’s close. Maybe it’s not a recovered market but it’s a different and pretty healthy market if you ask me.

Funky Foto Contest Winner Week 201

Well, that was a pretty good turnout on Friday! Good job folks! Congratulations to Debbie Yeung who was first to arrive with the correct answer, that could either be Whalers or Chevys, and wins the $30.00 Jamba Juice gift card! Good job Debbie! Also answering correctly was Jeff, Michael, Pak, Phoebe, Jim S, Nessa, Bill, Alex, Shrikant, Ellen, Yee, Mazen, Austin, AR, Craig, J Kwan, Nancy, Jenn R, Patrick, Kyle and Anurag as well as Jeff Pounder on facebook. Thanks for playing folks! See you again this Friday.

Funky Foto Contest Week 201

It’s such a gorgeous day today…and promises to be a hot one too, that I thought this shot of cool water would fit perfectly. This weeks question is a multiple choice one, name either the neighborhood across the water or the place just on the far left of the picture overhanging the water. If you’re first to do that you’ll win a $30.00 gift card to Jamba Juice.  All the rules of the road are available to view on the left hand margin as well as on the bar above. The winner along with all other correct answers will not be published until Monday morning. Any and all silly jokes, snappy quips and all wrong answers will be published immediately if not sooner

Somewhat Confusing

 

 

Every week I have a number of clients that anxiously await the arrival of new listings on the market. That’s especially true so far in 2012 with the inventory being so amazingly low. Folks flock to open houses on new listings and multiple offer feeding frenzies occur quite frequently now a days. Sometimes places are in fantastic shape and sometimes they aren’t yet most of these new offerings sell quickly, and lately over the asking price. Yet, there’s still those homes that just sit there…and some sit there some more! What about those places? Why don’t they sell and are there opportunities for buyers there?

The market is so very focused on the first 2 weeks of a listing. If a seller is going to get multiple offers is almost a certainty that it’s going to happen in the first 10 to 14 days of a listing. Buyers rush out to see the new listings and if they aren’t struck by the place immediately they move on to something else. When I look at the MLS I see some homes that are just sitting there, and it seems like they’re never going to sell and I can’t help but winder why? Often the answer to that comes quickly…the price is too high (often WAY too high), the project it’s in is a disaster, it’s a short sale and buyers have backed out because the bank can’t get it’s act together and approve (or even look at the file) the loan. Sometimes the place has a difficult structural problem or a significant location challenge and sometimes the home just shows incredibly poorly.

In Foster City right now, there are 10 homes out of the 21 total listings in both single family and condo/townhouses that have been on the market for more that 21 days. 3 of them have been on for over 175 days. Most of them, to me, have understandable explanations. Still, it’s an interesting thing that folks will offer significant dollars over the asking price but not offer under asking on some of these places. Of course, it would certainly be a concern to me that my investment couldn’t sell in a market like this. The big question would be…why isn’t it selling and could I resolve the issue that keeps it from selling and improve my prospects for appreciation going forward. In many of these cases the answer is no or tentatively maybe. That doesn’t really encourage folks does it?

All Time High

 

 

 

 

 

 

One of my favorite things about Foster City, as a realtor at least, is the fact that it’s relatively easy to study comparables. There’s a finite amount of homes and floor plans in this town so I can simply search by square footage and find what these houses have sold for historically. It’s, of course, not exactly foolproof since no two houses are the same. Some are very upgraded and others not so much. Never the less, it’s alot easier studying comps and how the market is doing in Foster City since you have lots of like kind homes. It also makes it very interesting to look at how the 2012 market is evolving. Here’s some examples:

685 Pilgrim was listed for $888,000 a month or so ago. The most ever spent for this 3 bedroom, 2 bath floor plan was $900,000 and I thought Pilgrim was priced high since it needed a roof. What do I know…it got 10 offers and closed at $908,000.

844 Vega was listed for $998,000 also about a month ago and also got multiple offers. The most money ever spent for this floor plan was $1,066,000 in 2005. 844 Vega sold for $1,050,000.

354 Bluefish was listed for $910,000..same time last month. Guess what…it got multiples. The most money ever spent for this floor plan was $1,000,000 in 2005. 354 Bluefish closed at $967,000.

There are others in escrow now that are going to extend this list. It’s an amazing thing that in just a few months the values of these homes are bouncing right back to where they were before the meltdown. I hate to say it, but heard a whole lot of commentary about how we were never going to really recover from the binge that was the subprime era. Dare I say it, I think we’re recovering nicely…thank you. Coming close to and exceeding all time highs in Foster City is really a testimony to how strong this local economy is.

Funky Foto Contest Winner Week 200

Now that was a bit easier than last week, of course Friday’s pic was of Port Royal park and our winner is Ranjana Suresh who arrived first. Congrats Ranjana!! Also answering correctly was Phoebe, Shrikant, Nicole, Alex O, Bill, Bryan, J Kwan and Anurag. Thanks for playing folks! See you again this Friday.

Funky Foto Contest Week 200

While we’re on the subject of parks in Foster City…we might as well do it again! This week’s question, what park is this? If you’re first to answer that you’ll win a $30.00 gift card to Chipotle. All the rules of the road are available to view on the left hand margin as well as on the bar above. The winner along with all other correct answers will not be published until Monday morning. Any and all silly jokes, snappy quips and all wrong answers will be published immediately if not sooner

Good New & Bad News

OK, the bad news first. As I’m sure most of you know, both Cold Stone Creamery and Turtle Bay Restaurant have gone out of business. It’s really an incredible thing to me that Foster City can’t support a single white tablecloth, fine dinning type of restaurant. Amazing! Foster City has a ton of great things going for it but, outside of Redwood Shores, it’s the worst restaurant community on the Peninsula. OK, there’s a couple of good spots (Sweet Basil comes to mind) but it’s not even in the league of the neighboring communities. Just across the street from my office in San Carlos on San Carlos Avenue is King Chuan, San Remo, Sneakers, La Corneta Taquiera, Saffron Indian Bistro, Red Hot Chili Pepper, and the new “French Comfort Food” spot called Cuisinett. Again, this isn’t including all the other restaurants further down on Laurel Street. You wonder why I work in San Carlos?

OK, I felt like Turtle Bay had slipped recently…but still. It just seems like there should be a market for a good restaurant in this town. Well, the rumor is that into the space left by Turtle Bay comes a FiveGuys Burger franchise. In case you’ve missed it, Five Guys is sort of the east coast equivelent of In & Out Burger. Five Guys is GOOD! It would be a terrific thing if in fact they do enter that space! I hear it’s actually possible by this summer. Stay tuned!

Complete Insanity

We’ve officially crossed over into a realm of total insanity now. The vast majority of offers that are being accepted have no contingencies of any kind, almost every property is going over asking…often by a bunch and the old rules are being scrapped on a weekly basis. Some of which I wish were not being scrapped too! Here’s some recent examples:

1. A townhouse in Foster City that had no lockbox, no sign an really no marketing except the MLS listing and no open house gets 6 offers on day 4 of the listing. All over asking, the winner with no contingencies.

2. A foreclosure listing in San Francisco gets 27 offers…and 14 of them are all cash.

3. A house in Foster City that’s had no inspections, get’s multiple offers and the listing agent includes a form with the disclosures for buyers to sign prior to presenting their offer that suggests the buyer waives their right to do inspections.

4. The short sale I mentioned last week that suggested the buyer put their 3% deposit in escrow within 48 hours and do their inspections within 10 days…even if it could take the bank 4 or 5 months to approve the short sale.

5. A house in Belmont that looked at offers before any disclosures were given to buyers and also without inspections.

There’s some zaniness going on right now…that’s for sure. I think it’s really imprtant right now to exercise some restraint even though the pressure is clearly on to get a place. Not inspecting a house is crazy and strikes me as a huge liability.

I personally think writing an offer without a loan or appraisal contingency is a competitive advantage for a buyer who’s qualified enough to do it, has enough extra cash to make it work or has a large downpayment. It would certainly go a long way toward winning the home…but its a very risky thing if you don’t have more than 20% saved and certainly it would be a mistake if you are an FHA buyer. I guess the point is…do what makes sense.

 

Funky Foto Contest Winner Week 199

See that bird up there? That’s a Killdeer. Yes, Friday’s foto was of Killdeer Park. Congratulations to Bill Hastings who was first to arrive and wins the $30.00 gift card to Peets. Bill also discovered the mislabeled pic giving it away…and the good thing was that nobdy else seemed to have done that. Good job Bill! Also answering correctly was Shrikant and Mazen. Thanks for playing folks!! See you again this Friday.