How’s The Market?

House on LurlineOne of the things about being a Realtor that’s really sort of fun for me, although it can drive my wife crazy, is that everywhere we go  it’s inevitable that almost everybody wants to talk Real Estate. Let’s face it, it’s a more popular activity to talk about Real Estate in the Bay Area than it is to talk about the 49ers! Yesterday I went to a big Super Bowl Party at one of my client’s house and 4 people asked me how the market was and were offering consolation because they assumed it was terrible and I must be starving to death! I was almost embarrassed to tell them I’ve had 4 closings so far in 2008…and when I did they actually expressed shock! The common paradigm in our community is that the market’s gone to Hell in a handbasket. That’s NOT what’s really going on in Foster City.

In October the SF Chronicle did a story where it broke down all of the foreclosures and notices of default filed in each zip code in the Bay Area. In Antioch at that time there were 525 foreclosures and 1344 notices of default filed. In Foster City there were 2 foreclosures and 32 notices of default filed. This community is as solid as probably anyplace in the entire United States from the standpoint of preservation of value.  In the last 6 months 36 single family homes sold in Foster City, 23 of them sold at or over the asking price. That’s incredibly healthy! The remaining 13 houses averaged 4% under asking. For Condos & Townhouses the market is a little weaker, yet 53 units sold in Foster City in the last 6 months with 16 of those selling at either the asking price or over. The remaining units had price erosion of 6% as an average. There are areas in San Jose and Sunnyvale (and many other areas too) that have had 25% price erosion since July 2007. If what that means is that in Foster City prices have fallen way back to 2006 levels, what’s happening is NOT BAD!

The important thing about this market to remember is the old principles are back. In order to get top dollar a seller has to have a smart gameplan and must execute it properly. They also have to be priced right. Pioneering a new price level is probably not a good idea right now. Foster City has been, and will be for the future, a great place to invest.

What to look for in a Listing Agent

Metro CenterHow to pick a Realtor…now that IS the question. Here’s my perspective that comes from being a Realtor for almost 20 years in this area and seeing many, many changes along the way. At the end of 2007 there were over 21,000 Realtors in the Bay Area. I have no doubt that we’ll see that number drop significantly in 2008 but the fact remains that there are lots of us running around out there. Here’s an important fact: Realtors are not a commodity. One is not just as good as another.  There are several factors to cover when considering listing your home, below are six.

1. Experience  Real Estate is an incredibly competitive, some would say “cut throat”, business and the value an agent with years of experience is critical. Our culture gets more and more litigious with each passing year and as that happens the value of an experienced agent is paramount. Almost anything can happen inside a Real Estate transaction and emotions are commonly frayed. An experienced agent will not panic in the face of an unforseen problem and in many cases has experienced that problem before and knows what to do about it. An experienced agent most likely has seen or sold a property just like yours before and that kind of familiarity helps you. It’s also an important fact to determine how many transactions an agent has done in the last 12 months, since the “Mortgage Meltdown” for sure. The numbers came out recently from the San Mateo County Board of Realtors and I was shocked to learn that 42% of the agents in this Board didn’t sell a home in 2007 and 58% sold 3 or less. Maybe just as amazing is the fact that only 7% sold 12 or more. Let’s be liberal and say that the agent selling 3 properties closed all of them at $1,000,000 each. They grossed $75,000 assuming a 2.5% split. Now take into consideration they have to give their office a cut, typically at least 40% and you have that agent making $45,000 last year. Remember, 58% of the agents in the Board made less than that in 2007. Heck, most of the Real Estate agents writing Blogs right now don’t have much experience either! They just know how to type well. Isn’t it reasonable that the experienced and successful 7% are going to be far more comfortable negotiating with YOUR money than an agent worrying about whether they’ll still be a realtor in 6 months?

2. Go Local Try to make sure that all of the agents you talk to are doing the majority of their business locally: ie Mid-Peninsula and naturally it helps to have plenty of experience in Foster City. I would never use an agent who wasn’t local. Local Realtors know the market better, have better connections and are much more likely to sell your house at a price and with terms that you are most likely to agree too. When prospective buyers agents see a phone number starting with 916 or 510 or 831, for example, it’s often a red flag. Agents from out of the area are very often unfamiliar with our local forms and disclosure requirements. In addition they obviously have no relationships built in the local area and thus run the risk of losing traffic. It’s going to be a VERY rare agent that holds the house open consistantly or meets the inspectors or potential buyers, or replaces the flyers in the attached sign box when their office is located in Sacramento or Rohnert Park. Often, the out of area agent is a family member or a close friend who’s services come at a reduced cost. Unfortunately the seller often get’s what they paid for. In 2007 in Foster City this scenario played out on the sale of a house in Neighborhood #2 where a listing agent from out of the area and a relative of the seller took an offer almost $70,000 under asking on the first day of the listing and the house, in my opinion, was priced pretty well to begin with. I had a similar listing on Lurline in Foster City in 2007 that followed the proper gameplan and we ended up with 11 offers…and it went over asking by $129,000.

3. A Gameplan A top agent will come to see you with a detailed CMA, (Competitive Market Analysis) a list of references and a gameplan for how to sell your house for the most money possible. In all honesty, I’ve got a really nice and professional looking CMA but unless somebody asks about something that’s specifically in there it’s usually something I leave behind as I exit. 25 years ago I was in the Grocery business and I represented Clorox to a large Independent grocery distributor. The Clorox regional manager and I were presenting some new product to them and, of course, the regional guy had a detailed 45 minute presentation planned for the buyer that included all kinds of graphs and visuals. Right before he began his pitch the buyer said: “I’ll take all of these items in all sizes if you stop right now” The Clorox guy said he thought it was important that the buyer learn about their big television advertising schedule and when the commercials would run. I had to drag him out of the office before we lost the sale! I, too, hate hearing long “dog and pony shows” so I tend to not show graphs comparing cost per square feet or show you pie charts comparing Re/Max Today’s market share vs. Coldwell Bankers Burlingame office. I believe it’s important for an agent to listen to what a sellers needs are and formulate strategy around that. A game plan is going to be different if you just got transferred to Boston than it would be if you wanted to move to a single family house in Foster City from your condo there. Obviously the game plan has as it’s goal achieving top dollar for a seller and that’s where it’s focus should be. An agent should always spell out all of the services they will provide, particularly those that will be paid for out of their own pocket (like inspections, staging, photography, flyers…etc). You’re paying alot of money for this service, you need to feel that it was worth it!

4. Savvy Kind of hard to quantify that one, huh! Ultimately it comes down to how technologically proficient is the listing agent and how can that proficiency translate into an advantage for you. Buyers often ask me why a given listing that they’ve seen online doesn’t have photos attached. Usually they assume that the MLS is experiencing a glitch with that listing. In truth it’s because the listing agent didn’t take pictures! Not having a listing broadly distributed via virtual tours and still photos on the Internet is the kiss of death in this current age…yet it happens all the time. All of the disclosures should be available for viewing online at any time. It’s more important to have an Open House ad online now than in the newspaper! We live in probably the most technologically savvy area in the World and it’s really important that a listing agent reflect that savvy.

5. Uniqueness It’s another intangible but there are other factors that cause people to choose the right agent. There will always be something that sets a given agent apart from others and when it’s right you know it. In my case I’m extremely relational. I build strong relationships with my clients as well as service providers and other Real Estate agents and those relationships have consistantly paid off for both me and my clients for years. How, you ask? Would it help if we had a problem escrow that a Title company could help with and because of the volume I’ve done I have great relationships with most of the senior Escrow officers in this area? I’ve actually had that scenario play out many times. There’s plenty of similar examples out there just like that. Some agents have superior backgrounds in finance, lending, construction practices or marketing but the point is that Average won’t due anymore. The market’s tougher and the stakes are much higher.

6. Commissions  Notice I left this one until last! Most of the commissions on property in Foster City last year were 5 to 6%, of which that is split in half to the buyer’s agent. 108 Single family homes sold in Foster City in 2007 and 8 of them offered commissions lower than 2.5% to the buyers agent. Of those 8, three were sold by their own listing agents who brought their own buyers in and two others were on the market for 349 days and 102 days respectively. One of those came off of their original price $550,000 from start to finish. All commission are, of course, negotiable by law but you really do get what you pay for. Some agents take less commission…and they should! No seller should take the chance of disincentivizing a buyers agent from showing their place. Yes, we can all agree that it’s patently unethical for an agent to avoid showing a house because the seller is paying less commission but in the real world, remember, 58% of the San Mateo county agents sold 3 houses or less last year. It’s too much of a risk for what amounts to peanuts in the long run. I’m sure I’ll have many more posts in the future about commissions, discount brokers…etc.

API’s for Foster City Schools

Dept of EducationIn September when the California Department of Education released the results of it’s STAR testing program several local schools measured very well on the scale called the Academic Performance Index(API). The API’s are a useful way to measure success in a given school and Foster City did extraordinarily well. I think it’s important to note that there are many other factors that make a good school, such as 1) Administration and Teachers, 2) Parental Involvement, 3) Facilities and 4) School specific programs. It’s amusing to me since many people I run into in Real Estate speak in reverential terms of the San Carlos schools and Baywood School in San Mateo as being the greatest things since sliced bread. Here’s an article that was in the San Mateo Daily Journal today about Baywood School:

DailyJournalArticle

Well, below are the API’s for Foster City Schools in comparison to San Mateo and San Carlos Schools.

Audobon School…857

Brewer Island School…923

Foster City School…912

Baywood School (SM)…930

Beresford School(SM)…792

Fiesta Gardens(SM)…762

George Hall(SM)…740

Highlands(SM)…875

Horrall(SM)…712

Parkside(SM)…780

Sunnybrae(SM)…787

Arundel(SC)…900

Brittan Acres(SC)…882

Heather(SC)…853

White Oaks(SC)…902

How about Middle Schools…Bowditch out performed all of the San Mateo middle schools, did better than Central Middle in San Carlos and was slightly under Terra Linda Middle in San Carlos.

Neighborhood #10–Town Center

Art & Wine FaireThe original plan for Foster City included nine neighborhoods, a ”Town Center” area and an “Industrial” area. Almost all residential neighborhoods contain some mixture of single family homes, two story townhomes and two and three story condominiums and apartments. Each residential neighborhood in Foster City is distinguished by street names found within the neighborhood. Most of the street names are derived from the marine nature of the City.  Each part of town has unique characteristics and styles and often in each neighborhood there are several individual developments that give special flavor to life there.

Neighborhood #10 is a largely commercial area that has offices, Banks, the Metro Center shopping and business center (it’s got, among others, Turtle Bay and Cold Stone Creamery!) and the large, soon to be filled by IBM, Parkside Towers.(formerly the Inktomi Mausoleum. It also is home to the Town Green townhouses and Cityhomes Townhouses as well as the upscale Promontory Point condos, Spinnaker Cove, Meridian Bay condos and the Emerald Bay townhouses.

Neighborhood #9–Constellations and Stars

Beach Park WaterThis neighborhood is heavily comprised of townhouses and condos, with some of the townhouses being waterfronts, and large non waterfront single family homes. It stretches from just south of Highway 92 to the main waterway between San Mateo and Foster City in the west to Beach Park Blvd in the south and again bordered by the lagoon on the east.  It also includes Edgewater Park with it’s large lawn area, softball diamond,basketball courts, playground equipment and tennis courts. Neighborhood #9 boasts the waterfront townhouse communities of Shell Cove and Isle Cove, plus the non water townhouse community of Edgewater Townhouses. Foster City School is a nice feature of this neighborhood as well. Close proximity to shopping at the Edgewater Place is a plus for this neighborhood.

Neighborhood #8–Bays

Foster City from the AirThis neighborhood, also at the southern end of town, boasts a large number of single family homes, some of them waterfront plus the Alden Crossing neighborhood and the planned development Williams Landing. Both of these properties have associations. In addition the neighborhood has both Boothbay and Port Royal Parks and the Nantucket Cove townhouse project. The neighborhood is bound by the main waterway on the west, Edgewater Blvd on the east (except one small section on the water that includes Monterey & Avalon Streets) Beach Park Blvd on the north and Redwood Shores on the south. The waterfront homes on Port Royal and Cumberland are separated by a bike trail so these lots do not have direct contact with the water and thus have no private docks.

Some homeowners have commented about the noise from Highway 101 that can be heard from the homes on Port Royal as well as the fact that motor boats and water skiing are allowed on the main waterway behind those houses. The rest of the waters in Foster City do not allow that.

Neighborhood #7–Islands

Plum Island EveningThis is a large neighborhood geographically and encompasses several different styles and, as usual, boasts both waterfront and non waterfront single family homes but has no townhouses or condos. Interestingly there are a number of different developments in Neighborhood #7, all with associations, so there is a real diversity about the area. It’s bordered by the lagoon on the north, Edgewater Blvd on the west and open space/Redwood Shores on the east and south. It includes the waterfront communities of Plum Island, Longwater and Pitcairn as well as the non waterfront but really popular neighborhoods of Sea Colony, Alden Park, and Antigua. Finishing it off is the also popular planned community of Williams Landing. Neighborhood #7 also boasts the large and family friendly Sea Cloud Park which is the home of the Foster City Little League and offers more than 23 acres of baseball diamonds, soccer fields, play apparatus, lawn area, snack shack, batting cages and restrooms.

Neighborhood #6–Admirals

Whaler’s RainbowThis neighborhood is probably equally divided between waterfront and non waterfront single family homes and a very nice townhouse community that has about 15 to 20% waterfront exposure. This area is south of Beach Park Blvd and is surrounded by the lagoon on all other sides. It includes the Ponderosa Shores single family neighborhood and the very popular Whalers Cove and Whalers Landing waterfront single family home neighborhoods. It also boasts the townhouse project Harbor Side (some waterfront units) as well as Farragut Park.

The Whalers area, particularly the Island, is possibly the most coveted neighborhood in Foster City and is easy distance by small boat, walking or driving to shopping at the Edgewater Place Center:

http://www.edgewaterplaceshoppingcenter.com/

It also has a popular “safe streets” Halloween event attended by droves of kids each year.

Neighborhood #5–Explorers

This neighborhood has a slightly different feel than the others so far in that it is predominantly townhouses, including many waterfronts, no high rise condos and a planned single family home development featuring some waterfronts. The area is bounded by the main lagoon, Shell Blvd on the east, and Beach Park Blvd on the south. The neighborhood features the large Catamaran Park and Leo Ryan Park on the Hillsdale side of the big lagoon, the planned homes of Bayporte, many of which have stunning waterfront exposures, the Chamber of Commerce’s favorite signature waterfront community called the Islands, and the townhouse communities of Winston Square and Winston Village.This is a particularly popular area because these projects are well maintained, the Parks are really wonderful and fronts the water and the dramatic “Islands” project has the widest waterfront exposure in town and windsurfing and rowing are common in front of this property. it’s also very appealing to many buyers that the Association dues at Winston Square are still $160.00 a month.

One comment that’s commonly heard is that the dues in the Islands are actually over $500.00 a month, maybe that’s the price you have to pay for that type of water